Time for an overhaul in Chi-town

Published by http://www.probasketballnews.com/ on 24/12/2008
link: http://www.probasketballnews.com/todd_122408.html

In beating the odds to claim the first pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, the Chicago Bulls landed their floor leader of the future in hometown hero Derrick Rose. But over the past 14 months one thing has become abundantly clear -- the team is seriously flawed. The Bulls are in desperate need of a legitimate inside presence who can score on the block. Without that, and as currently constructed, they’re going nowhere.

The entire roster, excluding Rose and Luol Deng, should be trade bait. Chicago has done a decent job of stockpiling talent, but the problem is the talent is too similar in skillset (or lack thereof). If the Bulls want to build a contender around Rose, they must commence the difficult process of overhauling the roster.

Let’s be honest, the Bulls have made some dreadful personnel decisions over the last few years, particularly in the draft. If they had retained LaMarcus Aldridge with the No. 2 pick in the 2006 draft, instead of trading him to the Blazers for Tyrus Thomas (pick No. 4), we would not be having this conversation. Aldridge is a flat-out stud and future All-Star power forward. The comparison of "Rasheed Wallace without the attitude" is spot on, which makes Aldridge a scary prospect. Thomas on the other hand is strictly an energy type player who is very raw offensively. In his third year, he is shaping up to be a major disappointment for a No. 4 pick.

In the 2007 draft, the Bulls again opted for a frontcourt energy guy, selecting Joakim Noah with the ninth pick. Problem is, he’s even worse than Thomas offensively and his defense is not as good as advertised. Unless it’s a dunk, Noah struggles to put the ball in the basket, even at close range. If this is your frontcourt tandem of the future (Noah and Thomas), good luck.

Spencer Hawes was selected by the Sacramento Kings immediately after Noah with the 10th pick in the draft. He clearly should have been grabbed by Chicago, as most mock drafts had predicted at the time. He is everything Noah isn’t -- skilled offensively both inside and out. He has also proven to be a pleasant surprise defensively, as well as on the boards.

So instead of a dynamic Hawes/Aldridge frontcourt, Chicago has ended up with a very average Noah/Thomas pairing. Considering their obvious and well-known limitations when drafted, that’s inexcusable.

The Bulls have also flunked in free agency and trades. The Ben Wallace acquisition needs no explaining. In trade, the Bulls had the necessary pieces to acquire either Kevin Garnett or Pau Gasol in 2006-07, but failed to do so. Either player would have solved their need for an inside presence. The trading away of Tyson Chandler for next-to-nothing is just another example.

The end result is a team that, apart from Rose, is a mess. Thomas and Noah are offensive liabilities. Kirk Hinrich is a very expensive backup guard. Ben Gordon has an overblown sense of his own abilities and has one foot out the door. Likewise, Larry Hughes is an average NBA player who is grossly overpaid. Drew Gooden doesn’t know his limitations and Andres Nocioni is a disappointment. While Deng is also struggling to justify his contract, he is a nice building block for the future alongside Rose.

What the Bulls must do is put together an attractive package of players that will bring a legitimate inside presence in return. The player they should target is Paul Millsap of the Utah Jazz, who is a restricted free agent at the end of the season. The Bulls could do one of the following to acquire his services: a) put together a package of players that will entice the Jazz to trade (i.e. any combination the Jazz desire), or b) slash payroll, so that the Bulls can offer Millsap a lucrative deal as a restricted free agent in the summer. This could be achieved by trading away Hinrich for an expiring contract, something that should be doable considering the need for point guards around the league.

With Utah focused on retaining Carlos Boozer this offseason, the Bulls could make Millsap an offer he can’t refuse, and for the Jazz, a luxury they can’t afford. Millsap is tremendously underrated, and would be a great cornerstone to pair with Rose and Deng. There is no doubt that Millsap is good enough to be a starting power forward in this league. In Boozer’s absence he has displayed a solid combination of toughness, defense, rebounding and inside scoring that is rare in today’s NBA.

A deal that Utah might be interested in could involve the following players -- Hinrich/Nocioni/Thomas for Kirilenko/Millsap/Harpring. The salaries match, the Jazz can rid themselves of Kirilenko’s bloated contract, while picking up some Jerry Sloan-type players in return (Hinrich/Nocioni). The Bulls would land and their man in Millsap and pick up a handy player in Kirilenko. I would take a Rose/Deng/Kirilenko/Millsap core over their current one any day. It would make for a gritty combination of players to contend with.

The problem that the Bulls will encounter going forward is that there aren’t many inside threats available. They will have to be very aggressive in seeking these players out. Suitable players who could be available for the right price are: Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox (Thunder), Nene (Nuggets), Brandon Bass (Maverickss), and rookies Darrell Arthur (Grizzlies) and Marreese Speights (Sixers). While neither of these players are likely to be All-Stars, they could all add a dimension to the team that is currently lacking.

One thing is certain: A team that exclusively relies on perimeter shooting will not succeed. The Bulls must deal with this issue now, and should be prepared to take a step back in the short term, in order to acquire the inside presence that will be critical for future success.

The class of 2010 - stay or go?

Published by http://www.probasketballnews.com/ on 11/11/2008
Link: http://www.probasketballnews.com/todd_111108.html


The list of potential free agents in the summer of 2010 is mind-boggling. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire headline the list. But which of the big name players will actually make the move and change zip codes?

For the top 10 potential free agents of 2010, here are my early predictions on who will stay and who will go. As you’ll see, I am predicting big changes to the NBA landscape. But please note -- some imagination was required in the writing of this article.

LEBRON JAMES, Cavaliers (player option)
Stay or Go: Go

Sorry Cleveland fans, but I think your worst nightmare will come true. The Cavs' inability to surround LeBron with enough quality players will force him to look elsewhere for that elusive championship. But LeBron will not uproot merely to play for a big-market team like the New York Knicks. By 2010 he will be seeking nothing less than a genuine chance at an NBA title.

With their train-wreck of a roster, the Knicks will still be miles from that goal, but either the New Jersey Nets or Miami Heat may be the solution. New Jersey has put together an impressive collection of young talent (Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Yi Jianlian, Ryan Anderson, Sean Williams) that could be ready for a playoff push in two years. Not to mention the fact that James' good buddy, Jay-Z, is part-owner of the team, and LeBron’s "building empire" would be a perfect fit for the eventual Brooklyn relocation (2011?).

While current developments suggest that the $3.5 billion Atlantic Yards arena project is in doubt, the mere prospect of a LeBron defection to Brooklyn should ensure that it remains on course for completion.

The Miami Heat and their wads of cash may also appeal. The prospect of joining close friend Dwyane Wade and young stud Michael Beasley to form an outrageous trio in South Beach could be well worth considering.

In regards to Europe, while James may use it as leverage to get a better deal, there is no way he plies his trade in a foreign land. LBJ belongs in the NBA and he knows it. But ultimately, assuming the Brooklyn move takes place, it’s the prospect of success and mass appeal in New York that will clinch the deal with the Nets.

Prediction: New Jersey (Brooklyn) Nets

DWYANE WADE, Heat (player option)
Stay or Go: Stay

The Heat's future cap space will enable them to sign another game-changing talent, which will keep Wade in South Beach. Unless they absolutely tank it over the next two years -- which seems unlikely -- Wade will be leading the Heat back to the NBA’s elite. Whether it’s Carlos Boozer in 2009, or perhaps Amare Stoudemire or James in 2010, both the lure of South Beach and having Wade as a teammate will pave the way for a big signing. And if Beasley can live up to the hype, Miami could be scary good down the track.

Prediction: Miami Heat

AMARE STOUDEMIRE, Suns (player option)
Stay or Go: Go

The Phoenix core is aging badly (Shaquille O’Neal is 36, Grant Hill 36, Steve Nash 34, and Raja Bell 32) and chances are they will continue their downward spiral. In two years they could be in the midst of a total rebuild, and wanting no part of it, Stoudemire will move on. Miami is bound to come calling, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him head for a big-market team. Having missed out on James, the emerging Knicks will beckon, and Stoudemire will be seduced by the bright lights of NYC and a reunion with former coach Mike D’Antoni.

Prediction: New York Knicks

CHRIS BOSH, Raptors (play option)
Stay or Go: Go

Assuming Dirk Nowitzki opts out of his contract and leaves via free-agency in 2010 (see prediction below), the Mavs currently have about $40 million in salary committed for the 2010-11 season. But that’s if they don’t make any more ill-advised financial decisions between now and then, like the $31 million they gifted DeSagana Diop this past summer.

How does this relate to Chris Bosh? Well, he was born in Dallas and grew up in Texas. The Mavs could be in a position to offer Bosh a maximum contract, with the added bonus of returning home. He could assume the role of franchise player from the departing Nowitzki, and team with Josh Howard to form an explosive frontcourt.

Something tells me the Raptors will fizzle out in the next couple of years. Andrea Bargnani appears to be a flop, and apart from Jose Calderon and the injury-prone Jermaine O’Neal, there is little talent to speak of. In two years Bosh will be hitting his prime, and his patience may have run out if the Raptors aren’t legitimate contenders.

One thing’s for sure, in 2010 Mark Cuban will have his check book at the ready, and it’s quite possible Bosh will be at the top of his list.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

DIRK NOWITZKI, Mavericks (player option)
Stay or Go: Go

Odds are high that by 2010 a mutual separation in Dallas might be best for all concerned. Minus a championship and fading fast, Cuban will be seeking a fresh start, and Nowitzki a change of teammates to help him achieve his goal of becoming an NBA champion. A team like the San Antonio Spurs may appeal to the big German, as they will have the cash and personnel to suit. Imagine Dirk playing alongside Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Seems like a move that both parties would find intriguing.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

TRACY MCGRADY, Rockets (unrestricted)
Stay or Go: Go

Having come up short in Houston, McGrady will be looking to hitch his wagon to a championship outfit. Willing to sign for a minimal amount, teams such as Portland, Utah and the Lakers will make a pitch. However, the chance to partner with Chris Paul in the New Orleans backcourt will be too tempting to pass up.

Prediction: New Orleans Hornets

JOE JOHNSON, Hawks (unrestricted)
Stay or Go: Stay

Atlanta will become a force behind the continued improvement from its stable of young studs (Josh Smith, Al Horford, Marvin Williams and Acie Law). As the heart and sole of the team, Johnson won’t walk away from that.

Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

TYSON CHANDLER, Hornets (player option)
Stay or Go: Stay

Chandler would have to be crazy to leave Chris Paul and the Hornets. Realizing this, he honors the remainder of his contract.

Prediction: New Orleans Hornets

MANU GINOBILI, Spurs (unrestricted)
Stay or Go: Stay

Ginobili’s loyalty and the promise of new success with Nowitzki’s arrival (earlier prediction), will cause him to re-up at a reduced rate.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

MICHAEL REDD, Bucks (player option)
Stay or Go: Stay

There’s no telling where Redd could end up this season, let alone in two years. But I will take a flyer and say the Orlando Magic. By 2010 the Magic will be on-the-cusp and seeking another deep threat to complement Dwight Howard. Willing to accept less to finally play on a contender, Redd could be the missing piece to Orlando’s first ever NBA championship.

Prediction: Orlando Magic

Where Z-Bo would be the answer

Published by http://www.probasketballnews.com/ on 27/10/2008
Link: http://www.probasketballnews.com/todd_102708.html

As I see it, there are only two viable destinations for Zach Randolph -- Detroit or Cleveland. Both teams can offer the Knicks players whose contracts expire before the 2010 season. They can off-load headaches of their own in Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace. But more importantly, they could provide the best environment for Randolph to succeed, and in the process make their own team better.

With all due respect, a young team with a losing record (a la Memphis) would have to be out of its mind to trade for Randolph. His lackluster defense and ho-hum attitude do not translate into team success when he assumes the role of lead player, as evidenced in New York and Portland. However, on a good defensive team, surrounded by strong, influential leaders, Randolph could play a valuable role. Both Detroit and Cleveland fit the bill.

DETROIT

A straight swap of Randolph for Rasheed Wallace works financially. The Knicks get what they desire in an expiring contract, and the Pistons get the shakeup they so desperately need.

Firstly, let’s be clear about one thing: Sheed needs to go. I know the guy has immense talent, but he’s also proven to be a huge liability. He is probably the main reason why the Pistons have flaked in the last three Eastern Conference finals. His emotional blow-ups have cost the team in crucial moments, and for a guy with such tremendous low-post skills, his love affair with the 3-point line is beyond a joke. It simply cannot be tolerated any longer. Not when the Pistons are still capable of winning a title -- which they are, minus Wallace.

With Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton, the Pistons would still have a tremendous foundation. However, the current squad has a championship window of about 1-2 years tops, hence the need to bolster the lineup now. And despite his bloated contract, Randolph could be the answer.

The reason is this: The Pistons have struggled in two key areas -- offense and rebounding. Last season, Detroit was 17th in the league in points per game and 21st in rebounding. Most victories came as a result of the defense, not from outscoring people. Well, guess what? Randolph will give you nearly 20 points and 10 rebounds in his sleep, something Wallace is no longer capable of giving on a consistent basis. Yes, the Pistons' interior defense will suffer without Sheed (Kwame Brown will help in this area), but ultimately they will gain more than they lose, and the remaining core could still be solid defensively.

But what about Randolph’s well-reported attitude problems? By slotting him into the established Piston lineup, surrounded by experienced veterans, he would be forced to conform to the high standards set in the Detroit locker room. And he could concentrate purely on what he does best -- score and rebound. And that’s exactly what the Pistons are crying out for.

Having Randolph on the block would give the Pistons a huge weapon that would blend nicely with their other parts. Yes, it is a risk due to Randolph’s contract (3 years, $48 million), but it’s a risk they must take if they want to get back to the Finals anytime soon.

The last three years have demonstrated quite clearly that something needs to change in Detroit, and as unlikely as it sounds, Z-Bo could be the answer.

CLEVELAND

A straight swap of Randolph for Ben Wallace also works financially. For the Knicks, Wallace’s deal expires in two years, thus their goal of being free of Randolph’s contract in time for the 2010 free-agent bonanza would be achieved.

For the Cavs, they rid themselves of Wallace, who is declining rapidly. His meager averages for the Cavs last season of 4.2 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, with a contract that spans two more years at $28.5 million, is a hefty price to pay. At least with Randolph you would actually be getting something for your money. But in this instance, the crux is the third year in Randolph’s contract. However, with what Randolph brings to the table -- a legitimate scoring threat and rebounding -- I would be willing to take it on.

As an aside, trading Wallace would allow the Cavs to retain Wally Szczerbiak and his expiring $13 million contract for the remainder of the year (as opposed to trading him). Having this amount come off the books at the end of the season would give much-needed relief to their bloated payroll, and reduce their future luxury tax obligations.

But let’s be honest, even with the trade for Mo Williams, the team as it is currently constructed is not a championship team, period. The Cavs simply do not have the offense to support LeBron James, as last season’s paltry 96.4 ppg average demonstrates (24th in the league). But the addition of Randolph would give the Cavs a third legitimate scorer to pair with LeBron and Williams. And what makes this work is LeBron, through his enormous presence and unselfish mentality.

A three-pronged attack of Williams on the perimeter, Randolph on the block and James everywhere in between could be lethal, and rival the other big trios in the league. On the surface it does appear to be an odd combination, but again, that’s where LeBron’s influence comes into play.

It comes down to this: Unless the Cavs can give LeBron a supporting cast that is capable of contending for a title, he could walk in 2010. They really have nothing to lose. Give LeBron the pieces and he will make it work. At the moment, they do not have enough talent on their roster to get the job done.

If Cleveland cannot give LeBron the support he needs to succeed, they must be prepared to wave him goodbye as he heads to New York (Brooklyn?) in 2010.

The best (and worst) entering '08-09

Published by http://www.probasketballnews.com/ on 20/10/2008
Link: http://www.probasketballnews.com/todd_102008.html

The NBA's off-season is a time for improving your club -- or at least trying. Here is my list of who did the best and worst jobs heading into the 2008-09 season:

MOST LOPSIDED TRADES

1. Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu from the Pacers to the Trail Blazers for Brandon Rush, Jarrett Jack and Josh McRoberts.

The Pacers must not have been thinking clearly when they traded a potential superstar in Bayless for a handful of role players. Note to all GM’s on draft day, if Kevin Pritchard calls, hang up immediately. You’re about to get fleeced!

2. Marcus Camby from the Nuggets to the Clippers for a swap of second-round draft pick in 2010 and a trade exception (to Nuggets).

Surely the 2007 Defensive Player of the Year is worth more than a second round draft pick. A smart move by the Clippers, considering Camby’s defensive qualities, reasonable price ($8 million this season) and short-term contract (expires in 2010).

3. Renaldo Balkman from the Knicks to the Nuggets for Fred Jones and Taurean Green.

Denver virtually gave up nothing to acquire the intriguing Balkman, considering both Jones and Green have since been waived. Balkman has the potential to be a valuable "glue guy’" on a playoff squad, something every successful team needs. His stingy defense and team-first attitude are desperately needed in Denver. For the Knicks, they seem to be getting rid of the wrong players.


STEAL OF THE DRAFT

1. Jerryd Bayless, No. 11, Blazers (from Pacers)

After showcasing his phenomenal skills at the Las Vegas Summer League (averaged 29.8 ppg and won league MVP), teams such as Oklahoma City, New York and Indiana will rue the day they let Bayless slip through their fingers.

2. Darrell Arthur, No. 27, Grizzlies (from Rockets and Blazers)

Did NBA teams not watch the NCAA Championship game when the impressive Arthur scored 20 points and grabbed 10 rebounds? Obviously the Grizzlies noticed -- got themselves a steal by trading for Arthur.

3. Mario Chalmers, No. 34, Heat (from Timberwolves)

Chalmers was sensational in summer league play, with averages of 17.7 points, 7 assists and 2.7 steals per game. Oh yeah, he also hit one of the greatest clutch shots in NCAA Championship history. Not bad for a second rounder.


DRAFT DAY BLUNDERS

1. George Hill , No. 26, Spurs

Using a first-round selection on a little-known player, who at best will be Tony Parker’s back-up, is puzzling to say the least. Hill is a 6-foot-2 shooting guard that the Spurs intend to mold into a point guard (we’ve heard that before). Yes, I know the Spurs struck gold in the past with late selections on Parker and Manu Ginobili, but that was six years ago. Can anyone name a good player the Spurs have drafted since then (from those they have retained, which would exclude players like Luis Scola, who they foolishly traded)?

2. Kosta Koufos, No. 23, Jazz

Selecting Koufos at No. 23 when legitimate talent was still available, was a risky move by the Jazz. It would be very surprising if he turns out to be anything more than a back-up journeyman throughout his career.

3. Joe Alexander, No. 8, Bucks

I understand that Alexander has talent, but why would you select a small forward with the eighth pick when you have just traded for a prime time 3-man (Richard Jefferson)? The Bucks would have been better served drafting for need. By trading back a few spots, they could have selected a traditional power forward to partner with Andrew Bogut on the frontline (Jason Thompson, Marreese Speights or J.J. Hickson).


BEST FREE AGENT SIGNING

1. Elton Brand (5 years, $82 million), Sixers

Last year a low post presence was the only major hole in the Philly line-up. Enter Brand, one of the best low post players in the game. Considering the makeup of their team, Brand was worth the big bucks as it should allow the Sixers to take the next step and contend in the East.

2. Baron Davis (5 years, $65 million), Clippers

Enticing Davis back to his roots was a huge coup for the Clippers, especially after Brand’s departure. With Davis at the helm and a solid supporting cast, the Clippers will be back in the hunt for a playoff berth.

3. James Posey (4 years, $25 million), Hornets

Posey is the ultimate role player. NBA championships are not won without these rare individuals. Posey will take the Hornets to another level. Yes, he’s that good.


BIGGEST OVERSPEND

1. DeSagana Diop (5 years, $31 million), Mavericks

Career averages of 2.1 points and 3.9 rebounds per game. I rest my case.

2. Chris Duhon (2 years, $12 million), Knicks

Let’s be honest, Duhon has yet to prove anything in the NBA. Six million per year is generous, but with luxury tax the Knicks are effectively paying $12 million per year for his services. That’s insane! Are you sure Isiah is no longer calling the shots in New York?

3. Gilbert Arenas (6 years, $111 million), Wizards

Even at full strength it is doubtful that Arenas is worth $111m, due to his me-first attitude. But now, having recently undergone his third knee surgery in the space of 17 months, this decision will haunt the organization for years to come. On signing for $111m instead of $127m, Arenas said that he took less money because "he didn’t want to be a burden on the team’s salary cap." Give me a break!


BEST BARGAINS

1. Daniel Gibson (5 years, $20 million), Cavaliers

Locking Gibson up for the next five years at $4 million per season is a shrewd move by the Cavs. At such a young age, Gibson already has a reputation as a clutch performer with a deadly 3-point stroke. With LeBron James drawing all of the attention, and newly-added point guard Mo Williams, Gibson should continue to thrive.

2. Baron Davis (5 years, $65 million), Clippers

When Davis is on, he’s one of the best players in the NBA. At an average of $13m per season that’s a bargain rate, assuming his body holds up.

3. Ronny Turiaf (4 years, $17 million) Warriors

Golden State was in desperate need of a banger up front, and at just over $4m per year they found a gem in the young Frenchman. His toughness, defensive intensity and infectious personality will blend perfectly with Don Nelson's run-and-gun bunch.


WORST GM NON-DECISIONS

1. Bulls

By not acting decisively the Bulls lost coach Mike D’Antoni to the Knicks. With young players such as Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah and especially, rookie Derrick Rose, D’Antoni could have turned the Bulls into the Phoenix Suns of the East. This potentially was a match made in heaven and would have been a major attraction to prospective free agents (Dwyane Wade in 2010?).

2. Knicks

It was reported that the Clippers offered a second-round draft pick in exchange for Zach Randolph and his albatross contact (three years, $48 million remaining). My advice would have been to take it and run. The Knicks will not get another opportunity to unload Randolph without having to eat a bad contract in return (see proposed trade with Grizzlies). As long as Randolph remains on the books, the Knicks' chances of signing LeBron James in 2010 remain slim.

3. Pistons

For three years in a row the Pistons have been knocked out in the Eastern Conference finals. What more does Joe Dumars need to realize his team needs a shakeup? Rasheed Wallace has worn out his welcome in the Motor City and is now a major liability. Dumars must act (not just words) and Wallace should be the one to go.


TEAMS WITH THE BEST OFFSEASON

1. Sixers

The addition of Brand makes the Sixers a contender in the East. But that wasn’t all they achieved this summer. They re-signed young stars Andre Iguodala and Luis Williams to lucrative extensions, drafted promising big man Marreese Speights, and added veterans Kareem Rush, Royal Ivey, Theo Ratliff and Donyell Marshall to fill out their bench. While losing Jason Smith for the season to injury is a blow, the Sixers still have all the pieces in place to make a legitimate run at a conference title.

2. Nets

After last year’s debacle it was clear the Nets needed to rebuild and that’s exactly what they did. Enter Yi Jianlian through trade, Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson and Chris Douglas-Roberts via the draft, and Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera in free agency. It’s quite clear the youth movement is now in full swing, so too are the preparations for the LeBron sweepstakes in 2010. Now all the Nets need to do is trade Vince Carter and the purge is complete.

3. Trail Blazers

Prior to the off-season Portland already possessed an impressive collection of young talent on their roster. With the additions of Bayless, Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum, they are now bursting at the seams with potential superstars. The league should be scared because Portland is building a dynasty.


TEAMS WITH THE WORST OFFSEASON

1. Mavericks

Unless free agent signing Gerald Green becomes a star, expect the Mavs to continue their rapid decline.

2. Spurs

A failure to inject much-needed youth and scoring into the lineup will see the Spurs begin to fade. With the only additions being Roger Mason, George Hill and Salim Stoudamire (all backup PG’s), this will not get it done in the rapidly improving Western Conference. The injury to Manu Ginobili will also set them back.

3. Wizards

Once again, the Wizards have failed to add an impact big man to their roster, which will ultimately keep them firmly entrenched in mediocrity (draft pick JayVale McGee is years away from contributing and now Brendan Haywood may miss the entire season following wrist surgery). And despite what Gilbert Arenas thinks, his bloated contract will restrict the Wizards' options going forward. If the Arenas injury turns out to be a Grant Hill-type situation with Orlando (which is possible), the Wizards are in for a very long six years. Changes were needed to this fragile squad.

Return of basketball's twin towers

Published by http://www.probasketballnews.com/ on 6/10/2008

Link: //www.probasketballnews.com/todd_100108.html

There have been four trades in the NBA this year that could result in "twin tower" basketball becoming fashionable again. One way or another these tandems will have an impact on the NBA next season, and may force other teams to follow suit in order to keep pace.

For the uninitiated, in basketball terms, "twin towers" refers to a team that plays two guys on their frontline who are both capable of playing the center position. Typically, these players bring different skills to the table so as to compliment each other, rather than clash.

Looking back, there are two duos that come to mind when you think "twin towers" in the NBA. The Houston Rockets’ pairing of Hakeem Olajuwon and Ralph Sampson (1984-1988) and the San Antonio Spurs’ Tim Duncan and David Robinson (1997-2003). While the Rockets were good, finishing runner-up to the Celtics in the 1986 Finals, the Spurs went one step further, winning the championship in 1999. Unless you were a Knicks fan, it was a thing of beauty watching Duncan and Robinson dominate their much smaller opponents. There were times when the Knick players appeared completely helpless against the twin tower assault.

Let’s examine the twin tower tandems of today’s NBA.:

LAKERS – Pau Gasol (7-0) and Andrew Bynum (7-1)

On paper this combination appears the most lethal. Because of Bynum’s mid-season knee injury we were denied the chance to see these two in action, but all indications are they will take the floor together for the 2008-09 season.

In Bynum you have an extremely young (20) and talented post player who was beginning to blossom in a major way prior to injury. He was averaging 13.1 points and 10.2 rebounds in 28.8 minutes per game. The work he put in with Laker assistant Karem Abdul-Jabbar really began to bear fruit, with his post moves, decision-making and defense all showing dramatic improvement. Simply put, for such a young man with so little experience, at times he looked awesome.

Coming over from the Grizzlies mid-season, Gasol was everything the Lakers hoped he would be. He picked up the triangle offense with remarkable ease and blended seamlessly with Kobe Bryant and the rest of the Lakers. Gasol proved that he is an elite post player in the NBA, with consistent scoring and exceptional passing ability for a big man. Although his defense and lack of toughness were exposed in the Finals, this was no great surprise, simply a case of "he is what he is." He is a highly skilled, finesse big man who plays very good team basketball. Defense is not a strong part of his game. If he doesn’t receive support in this area he will be exposed, as shown in the Finals.

With Bynum at the 5 and Gasol at the 4, interior defense will be less of a problem, as Bynum will handle the bulk of the inside dirty work, to which he is more suited. Playing further away from the basket, Gasol’s passing skills and shooting ability will be used to greater effect, while Bynum sets up closer to the basket. The only real area of concern will be Gasol’s ability to defend the more mobile power forwards in the league (i.e. Josh Smith, Antwan Jamison, Michael Beasley/Shawn Marion). However, as most of these players reside in the East, it shouldn’t be a factor in the bigger Western Conference. If it does become an issue, Phil Jackson would likely jiggle the lineup, with Lamar Odom guarding the more mobile bigs.

With their combination of skill and length this truly could be a devastating matchup for opposing teams. If they remain healthy, a return trip to the Finals should be the outcome.

RAPTORS – Jermaine O’Neal (6 -11) and Chris Bosh (6-10)

Both Jermaine O’Neal and Chris Bosh are technically power forwards, but in today’s NBA they can more than hold their own at the center position. Again, health will be a factor due to O’Neal’s injury-riddled past, but if he can stay on the floor, and that’s a big if, it could be a dynamic combination.

Bosh is a superstar in the NBA, but by playing for the Toronto Raptors he keeps a low profile. However, he is widely recognized as one of the best big men in the league, he’s a perennial All-Star, an All-NBA performer and Olympian. He can do it all -- rebound, defend, shoot, play inside and outside. Team him up with a healthy O’Neal and the results could be spectacular.

O’Neal is quite similar to Bosh in many respects but he does possess a more refined low post, back-to-the-basket game. Like Bosh, he’s a strong rebounder and capable defender. O’Neal’s on-court performance is not in question, rather the amount of time he spends on the trainer's table instead of the basketball court. I for one hope he stays injury free because with O’Neal at the 5 and Bosh at the 4, they will be an absolute nightmare to defend. They’re both 20-10 guys in their own right, so together -- with their versatility, all-around skill and explosiveness -- they will be a formidable tandem in the Eastern Conference.

CLIPPERS – Marcus Camby (6-11) and Chris Kaman (7-0)

Not as sexy as the other two but intriguing none the less. Both players complement one another, with Camby known for defense and Kaman for offense. At 26 years old, Kaman is a good young center with a surprisingly well-rounded game. Despite losing focus in the previous season (the by-product of signing a massive 5-year $52.5 million extension), he returned to form during '07-08 with career-best averages of 15.7 points and 12.7 rebounds per game. Kaman is a highly skilled offensive player and underrated rebounder, and should continue to improve in the coming years.

Camby’s defense is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Clips. He won the defensive player of the year in '07 and makes his living as a standout shotblocker and team defender. He seems to be an unselfish player -- which is an added bonus for the young Clippers. With Kaman at the 5 and Camby at the 4, it will give the Clippers an imposing frontline that will cause major headaches for opposition coaches.

SUNS – Amare Stoudamire (6-10) and Shaquille O’Neal (7-1)

This combo looks great on paper, but it wasn’t enough to get the Suns past the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs. On a positive note, the trade for O’Neal rejuvenated Stoudamire by freeing him up defensively, and thus allowing him to be even more dominant on the offensive end. However, the reality is that Shaq’s well past his prime and no longer able to control a game the way he once did.

The only way for the Suns to get optimal production out of O’Neal while enhancing his durability would be to reduce his playing time, perhaps limiting him to short-sharp bursts. Fifteen-to-20 minutes per game, or no more than 5 minutes per quarter would be ideal. He simply cannot handle the riggers of a full NBA season anymore and therefore must be treated like the veteran role player he is. At a hefty $20 million per year that’s a bitter pill to swallow, but the team’s success will ultimately depend on it.

BLAZERS – Greg Oden (7-0) and LaMarcus Aldridge (6-11)

This pairing is downright scary. Should Oden recover from his knee injury and fulfil his potential as the NBA's next great center, and Aldridge continues his rise as one of the best power forwards in the game, everyone beware. The Trail Blazers will have set themselves up to be a powerhouse club over the next decade.

I don't ever recall a more talented PF-C pairing than these two developing together on the same team. In fact, nothing comes close. With Oden 20 years old and Aldridge 23, the potential is there for them to become one of the best big man combos ever. Portland fans, sit back and enjoy the ride. It could be special.

Three young teams on the rise

Published by http://www.probasketballnews.com/ on 6/10/2008

Link: http://www.probasketballnews.com/todd_100208.html

The Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Clippers have long been the NBA’s ugly ducklings, rarely enjoying the taste of success. But finally, the tide seems to be turning. Each team has compiled an impressive collection of young players that could, in time, propel them into contention among the NBA’s elite.

Let's take a look:

Memphis Grizzlies

To be frank, I’ve never agreed with the belief that the Grizzlies got fleeced in the Pau Gasol trade. They were hovering near the bottom of the ladder, yet were still forking out max money to a guy who was supposed to be their franchise player. They desperately needed to unload his enormous contract, clear the deck and start over. And that’s exactly what they did. Perhaps they could have held out longer and sought a more attractive piece in return for Gasol, but the reality is, they filled a need with flexibility, cap relief and young assets. There are some teams in the league who would kill for that (i.e. New York).

The Grizzlies' core now consists of Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Darrell Arthur and Marc Gasol (future starting five perhaps). Without the Pau Gasol trade to the Lakers, this simply would not have been possible. I’ll tell you one thing, if I could start a roster from scratch, I couldn’t dream of a more promising and exciting group of young players to build around. OK, that’s not totally true, there always is the Portland Trail Blazers.

If Memphis can hang on to these guys -- and that’s a big if with this team -- the Grizzlies could become the new version of the Mike D’Antoni-era Phoenix Suns. They have outrageous athleticism and scoring from the wing (Gay), hugely promising point guards (Conley, Kyle Lowry), versatile big men (Arthur, Gasol, Hakim Warrick), and star power (Mayo). If they stick together, the sky is the limit for this group.

Minnesota Timberwolves

With both Al Jefferson and Kevin Love on the frontline, the Timberwolves potentially have the next dominant big man combo. At 23, Jefferson already sports a 20-10 stat line, and Love certainly has the ability to post these numbers in time. But the beauty of a Jefferson-Love pairing is that they are both hard-working guys who are fundamentally sound, smart basketball players. Don’t expect to see flashy ‘look-at-me’ plays from these two.

I foresee a tremendous rivalry developing with the Portland Trail Blazers in the coming years -- with Jefferson-Love versus Greg Oden-LaMarcus Aldridge, we could be in for some epic old-school battles.

While Minnesota’s strength will be its frontcourt, the Wolves also possess impressive talent in the backcourt. I don’t understand why people have been criticizing Randy Foye. The guy had a very solid rookie year in 2006-07, averaging 10.1 points and 2.8 assists in only 22.9 minutes per game, and was selected to the NBA All-Rookie First Team.

Unfortunately, Foye missed the first half of last season with a knee injury, but despite the setback he increased his averages to 13.1 points and 4.2 assists per game. His averages over the last month of the season actually rivaled that of Brandon Roy’s season statistics, for whom Foye was traded, and is often unfairly compared. There is no doubt in my mind that he could be a star point guard in this league, somewhat in the mold of Gilbert Arenas. Foye has the size (6-4), strength (213 lbs) and shooting ability to be a superior player at the position. If his health cooperates and he continues to develop his point guard skills, Foye has All-Star potential.

In Corey Brewer, the Timberwolves have their defensive specialist and all-important glue guy. Craig Smith and Ryan Gomes provide extra muscle off the bench, and Rashad McCants, Mike Miller and Rodney Carney add offensive firepower.

The only hole in the team is at the center position. While Love and Jefferson will hold down the 4 and 5 spots the majority of the time, they will need a true center to battle the likes of Dwight Howard, Yao Ming, Tim Duncan and Greg Oden. The Wolves should be targeting a defensive-orientated center, perhaps Andy Varejao (Cleveland) or Jeff Foster (Indiana) -- both of whom appear to be available for the right price. In order to achieve this, they must be willing to sacrifice one of their young players via trade (Carney, McCants, Smith or Miller), or future first-round draft picks (of which they have many). If they wish to compete against the Western Conference elite, this must be a priority for the Wolves going forward.

In Jefferson, Love, Foye and Brewer, the foundations have been laid to a team that should be a playoff regular for years to come.

Los Angeles Clippers

Forget for one moment the drama of the offseason (losing Elton Brand and Corey Maggette, adding Baron Davis and Marcus Camby) and focus instead on the Clippers' impressive stable of young players.

Al Thornton and Eric Gordon are potential stars in this league. Thornton is an offensive beast, who can score in a multitude of ways. His '07-08 averages of 12.7 points and 4.5 rebounds will improve this season as he becomes one of the main options. Likewise, Gordon is a tremendously gifted offensive player. He can shoot the lights out and has the speed and strength to get to the hoop at will. Questions have been raised about his size, but at 6-4 and 215 pounds, he does have the physical tools to succeed as an NBA two-guard (despite what some people say, he is not a point guard). He is remarkably similar to Dwyane Wade (6-4, 216 lbs) in size and stature. And I never hear people questioning Wade’s size at the shooting guard position.

With the 35th pick in the draft the Clippers selected DeAndre Jordan. Jordan was predicted to be a lottery pick, so taking him in the second round was a no-brainer. Although extremely raw skill-wise, Jordan also has the physical tools to make an impact at the next level (7-0, 260 lbs). If the Clippers bring him along slowly and add offensive polish to his game, Jordan could pay huge dividends in 3-4 years.

Therefore, the Clippers have three young players on their roster who have tremendously high ceilings. Add them to a veteran core of Davis, Camby and Chris Kaman (only 26), and this exciting Clippers team has a bright future ahead.

I am not saying these teams are ready to contend for an NBA championship, or to even make the playoffs. But I do believe that with the collection of young talent on their rosters, their longsuffering fans may finally see light at the end of the tunnel. If they can retain these players -- and again, that’s a big if when discussing these teams -- they do have the potential to become the future version of this decade’s Western Conference elite.

Magic must seek help on the boards

Published by http://www.dailybasketball.com/ on 08/09/2008

link: http://www.dailybasketball.com/2008/09/09/magic-must-seek-help-on-the-boards.html

After the Orlando Magic were defeated by the Detroit Pistons in the second round of the playoffs, it was clear that Dwight Howard needed help on the frontline. So what did the Magic do in the offseason to address the problem? They drafted a shooting guard (Lee) and signed a point guard and small forward in free agency (Johnson/Pietrus). So once again it appears as though Howard will have to shoulder the bulk of the inside work for the Magic this coming season.

He did that and more this year with averages of 20.7 points, 14.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game. Starting forwards Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, despite both being 6-10, were unable to contribute much in the rebounding department with averages of 5.4 and 5.7 rebounds respectively. Both are more likely to be found at the 3-point line, as opposed to mixing it up in the paint.

Teaming Howard up with a pair of offense-minded shot-happy small forwards places huge responsibility on the young man’s shoulders. If they’re not careful, the extra workload could lead to injury or, at the very least, frustration. Not the best way to treat your young superstar and franchise player.

Currently, the Magic have Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle, James Augustine and Marcin Gortat as the only other big men on the roster. Together with Rashard Lewis masquerading as the starting power forward, and this will simply not get it done against quality playoff teams.

One of the main offseason priorities for Magic GM Otis Smith should have been to acquire a suitable power forward to play alongside Howard. That player would be someone who is willing to do the dirty work, rebound, defend and protect Howard’s back. Although he re-signed with San Antonio, Kurt Thomas would have fit the bill perfectly.

But the Magic’s best (and cheapest) opportunity to address this need came on draft day in the form of Memphis strongman Joey Dorsey. Whilst their first round selection of Courtney Lee was a good one, they had ample opportunities to trade back into the draft to select Dorsey. Between their pick at 22 and pick 33 when Dorsey was selected, there were 5 trades, meaning teams were more than willing to part with their draft pick. Had they been prepared to dangle the little-used J.J. Redick, or future draft picks, there is no doubt that Dorsey could be wearing an Orlando uniform today.

Fact is, they didn’t and they blew it. Dorsey would have been the perfect compliment to Howard. He’s a rebounding machine, a tough defender and can finish around the rim, sort of a young Ben Wallace. Bringing the rebound-focused Dorsey off the bench to play the power forward position, would have allowed Howard to concentrate on other areas of his game, such as individual defense and shot blocking.

If Dorsey wasn’t available, players such as D.J. White (29), Nathan Jawai (41), Richard Hendrix (49) and Darnell Jackson (52), could have filled a similar role and should have been given strong consideration.

If the Magic wish to compete against Eastern Conference powers Boston and Detroit, they must provide Howard with help on the boards. Teams such as Toronto (O’Neal) and Philly (Brand), who the Magic will be in direct competition with, have added muscle to their frontline in the offseason. If the Magic don’t address this problem during the season, expect to see another early playoff exit.

Will Duncan be worth $21.3m in 2012?

Published by http://www.dailybasketball.com/ on 03/09/2008

Link: http://www.dailybasketball.com/2008/09/03/will-duncan-be-worth-213m-in-2012.html

Tim Duncan is the greatest power forward the game has ever seen. He is a perennial Allstar and MVP candidate. He has won four championship rings and will be inducted into the Hall of Fame. But will Tim Duncan be worth $21.3 million in 2012? The short answer - no.

During last season Duncan signed an extension that will see him don the Spur’s silver and black until 2012. At the time the general consensus was he did the Spurs a favour, by electing not to sign for the maximum allowable amount. However, the fact remains that he will be owed $62 million from 2010 to 2012, with a whopping $21.3m owed in the final year.

If Duncan really was genuine in his desire to assist with rebuilding he should have negotiated an extension that would pay him max money over the next year or two, then gradually decrease, so by 2012 his salary would be $12-13 million. This would have allowed the Spurs to re-tool around their aging, but relatively inexpensive big man.

As great as he still is, there is no doubt that by 2012 the Spurs will regret the extension that allows a 36 year old Duncan to eat up a third of their entire salary. Case in point, Shaquille O’Neal. When Shaq was traded to the Miami Heat in 2004, a year later at the age of 33 he signed a massive five year extension totalling $100 million. Seemed like the smart thing to do at the time, but two years and one championship later, they tried desperately to rid themselves of his rapidly diminishing skills and cap-killing contract. Fortunately for them, Phoenix took the bait and is now stuck with him for two more years at $40 million. Whilst it is unlikely that Duncan will meet the same fate as Shaquille O’Neal, due to the respect afforded to him by the city of San Antonio (and rightfully so), the San Antonio Spurs will ultimately suffer as a result.

One would have to assume that Duncan’s play will gradually fall off over the coming years, and by 2012 there is little doubt he will be nearing the end. But such a decline is natural, especially when you consider the amount of basketball his body has endured over the last decade.

So why did the Spurs feel it was necessary to pay him top dollar over the next five years, when his game is sure to decline? My guess, it was more of a ‘thanks for the memories’ gift, rather than good basketball business.

Over the last decade the Spurs have prided themselves on making smart basketball decisions both on and off the floor, which has directly led to their success. However, through the trading of Luis Scola, the passing up of legitimate talent in the 2008 Draft (Arthur, Greene, Chalmers, Chris Douglas-Roberts), and the overly generous extension to Duncan’s contract, it seems as though complacency has finally crept in to the San Antonio front office. These decisions will haunt the Spurs over the coming years and will ultimately lead to their gradual decline.

The NBA's six most underpaid

Published by http://www.probasketballnews.com/ on 23/07/2008

Link: http://www.probasketballnews.com/todd_072308c.html

While overpaid players are a dime a dozen in the NBA, you have to look hard to find one that is ‘underpaid’. Not underpaid as in struggling to feed their family (hello Latrell Sprewell), but in relation to their talent, productivity, and in comparison to what players of similar ability are earning.

I have compiled a list of what I believe to be ‘the 6 most underpaid players in the NBA’. I have taken into consideration how much a player would fetch on the open market, if he were to become an unrestricted free agent today. I have excluded those players who are on rookie contracts, the parameters of which are set by the league.

1. Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando
07-08 Salary: $6.3m
Remaining: 2yr @ $14.2m

The first Turkish-born player in NBA history is finally fulfilling his potential. The 6-10 swingman with eight years of NBA experience, put up career highs in 2008 earning him the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award. He averaged 19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists during the season. In the 2008 playoffs he maintained his strong performance, with averages of 17.5 points, 6.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists. With his recently acquired reputation as a clutch performer, Turkoglu would likely command $8-10m per year as an unrestricted free agent.

2. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio
07-08 Salary: $9.1m
Remaining: 2yr @ $20.6m

Who would have thought that a guy picked 57th (second to last) in the 1999 NBA Draft would have such a significant impact on the game. Manu Ginobili is an elite player in the NBA and has the numbers/accolades to prove it. While nagging injuries hampered him in the 2008 playoffs, he still had a fantastic season winning the Sixth Man Award, whilst averaging 19.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists. With his unorthodox play, rugged defense and knack for the clutch shot, Ginobili has been a central figure in the Spur’s championship runs. There is no doubt that if Manu Ginobili became available on the open market, teams would be falling over themselves to secure his services. It is possible that he could receive offers approaching a maximum contract.

3. Kendrick Perkins, Boston
07-08 Salary: $4.4m
Remaining: 3yr @ $12.7m

The fifth year pro has slowly become a very solid NBA player. Perkins was the starting center on a star-studded Celtics team, and he certainly held up his end of the bargain. He meshed seamlessly with frontcourt mate Kevin Garnett, providing toughness, steady defense and occasional scoring. His finest performances came against the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals, where he averaged a very respectable 9.3 points and 9.2 rebounds. As quality big men are hard to come by in today’s NBA, Perkins would receive a hefty pay raise as an unrestricted free agent, somewhere in the vicinity of $6-8m annually.

4. Grant Hill, Phoenix
07-08 Salary: $1.8m
Remaining: 1yr @ $1.9m

For almost $2m per year, Grant Hill is a bargain for the Phoenix Suns. His 07/08 averages were 13.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.9 assists. You will not get better production on the dollar than this in the NBA. However, Mike D’Antoni’s short rotation during the regular season resulted in the notoriously injury-prone Hill logging an average of 31.7 minutes per game. Inevitably, Hill broke down towards the end of the season and his playoff performance suffered as a result. He only averaged 3.7 points and 5.3 rebounds in the first round loss to the San Antonio Spurs. Regardless, if used properly (in short bursts), Grant Hill can still impact an NBA game, and his true value would be around $3-5m per year.

5. John Salmons, Sacramento
07-08 Salary: $4.7m
Remaining: 3yr @ $16.4m

On July 24 2006, the Sacramento Kings signed John Salmons to a multi-year contract. Since that time Salmons has made tremendous strides for the Kings. He is a supremely talented offensive player who averaged 12.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists during the 07/08 season. He played in 81 games and started 41 of those. When given the opportunity, Salmons showed an ability to consistently post 20 points or more per game. In fact, as a starter Salmons averaged 17.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists. With the possible departure of Ron Artest, expect to see continued improvement from the low-key Salmons. Given his relatively young age (28) and recent production, it is possible that Salmons could command $7-9m annually.

6. Rafer Alston, Houston
07-08 Salary: $4.5m
Remaining: 2yr @ $10.1m

How quickly things change in the NBA. You have a well reported reputation as an overpaid malcontent, and then suddenly you’re being labelled as a solid veteran who is crucial to the team’s success. Such is life for Rafer Alston, the former New York street basketball legend. The 07/08 season was clearly Alston’s best, with averages of 13.1 points and 5.3 assists. Alston was a key contributor in the 22 game win streak and was superb in the playoffs, averaging 14.3 points and 4.5 assists. His value to the Rockets was clearly evident when they struggled mightily in his absence during games 1 and 2 of the first round match-up with Utah. With the current need for quality point guards, Alston would likely fetch $6-7m annually if he hit the open market.

The value of the NBA veteran

Published by http://www.probasketballnews.com/ on 23/07/2008
Link: http://www.probasketballnews.com/todd_072308b.html

The day the Boston Celtics signed P.J. Brown, was the day they became legitimate title contenders. That may sound like an overstatement, but for a team with championship aspirations, a strong veteran presence can mean the difference between winning and losing.

Up until that point the Celtics did not resemble a championship-caliber team. I recall a game back in February earlier this year, the Suns versus Celtics in Phoenix. After a tight first half the Celtics were steam-rolled in the second and despite the final margin of 8 points, they were never in it. Sure, team’s lose on the road and even suffer the odd heavy defeat, but this performance had a deeper meaning. I remember thinking at the time, unless they acquire veterans who possess deep playoff experience, their impressive 2007/08 campaign would ultimately fall short.

The Phoenix loss exposed two key weaknesses for Boston, a lack of depth and a lack of veteran leadership. Sure, the ‘Big 3’ of Garnett/Pierce/Allen had all reached conference finals individually, but more often than not their teams landed in the lottery. The Phoenix defeat indicated a desperate need for added muscle upfront, as they simply couldn’t handle the size and skill-set of Stoudemire and O’Neal. Apart from Garnett, the Boston front line consisted of the inexperienced Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe, Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis and Brian Scalabrine. Together with their lack of a true back-up point guard, it was obvious that the roster in its current form was not going to get it done in late May/June.

Fortunately for the Boston Celtics, GM Danny Ainge had a plan. Enter P.J. Brown, who despite a long lay-off was a sure bet to be the first big off the bench come playoff time. P.J. Brown is the ultimate professional who leads by example, but more specifically, it was his steady defence they coveted. His impressive performances in the playoffs proved his worth and then some.

You don’t have to look far to see the true value of a veteran come playoff time. For the Spurs in 2007 and the Heat in 2006, their championship victories would not have been possible if not for the timely contributions of their veterans. For the Spurs it was Bowen, Finley, Horry and Barry, and for the Heat it was Payton, Mourning and Posey. All made crucial plays during the championship games. Also, with Boston’s Finals opponent the Los Angeles Lakers, you cannot go past Derek Fisher as a major reason for their remarkable turnaround this year. His steady presence in the backcourt solidified their team and instantly took the pressure off Kobe. This allowed Bryant the freedom to play off the ball and, crucially, trust his team-mates.

The P.J. Brown addition to the Celtics was a stroke of genius by Danny Ainge, and quite possibly the final piece to their championship puzzle. The signing of Sam Cassell was also a shrewd move. Despite his inconsistent play, his championship experience gave added confidence to the team.

Make no mistake, while the superstars soak up all the attention, it is the presence of veteran players like P.J. Brown, Sam Cassell and James Posey (only 31 but plays like a seasoned vet), that solidifies a team and makes an NBA Championship reality rather than a dream.

Still room for improvement in NBA

Published by www.probasketballnews.com on 23/07/2008
Link: http://www.probasketballnews.com/todd_072308.html

No one loves NBA basketball more than I do, but there are certain aspects of the game I would characterize as ‘ugly’. They slow the game down, suck the excitement from a close contest, and otherwise detract from the unique spectacle that is an NBA game.

Let’s examine the culprits:

Timeouts
It has reached the point where I would rather tape a live game and watch it later, so as to avoid the endless timeout breaks. Each team has a total of 8 timeouts per contest - 6 x 100 second and 2 x 20 second timeouts. Do the math and that’s 16 potential stoppages in play, which doesn’t include TV timeouts, quarter time breaks and interruptions from fouls and substitutions. Also, it’s not uncommon for the final minutes of a tight game to be drawn out to 20-25 minutes. Whilst I do understand the commercial aspect of timeouts (revenue through adverts), it’s borderline ridiculous and the game is suffering as a result.

Too often a game is brought to a halt so that a coach can instruct his players exactly where to go and what to do. Wouldn’t it be more exciting if players could make their own decisions during a game, especially in the closing moments? Isn’t that what practice is for, to prepare players for different scenarios? Heck, a coach can call plays on every possession if he so desires, but why continually interrupt the game through timeouts?

There are numerous solutions to the problem. You could simply reduce the number of timeouts allowed per team, or, eliminate them altogether and replace with TV timeouts at specific stages each quarter (9 min/6 min/3 min). However, something tells me ($$$) this aspect of the game will never change. It’s a shame.

‘Penalty' free throws
Nothing is more boring in an NBA game than watching players shoot free throw after free throw. I would liken it to watching paint dry or grass grow. But we are regularly subjected to this facet of the game through the ‘penalty’ rule. Under this rule, each team is allowed to commit 4 fouls in each quarter with no penalty. On the 5th team foul committed that quarter, that team is in the penalty, and thus, free throws are awarded to the opposing team. If a team commits more than 1 foul in the last 2 minutes of a quarter, this also results in a ‘penalty situation’.

In combination with timeouts, penalty free throws can stifle a game of basketball and reduce it to a crawl. Solutions - raise the limit by 2 fouls (from 4 to 6), or award a player 1 free throw instead of 2. Either way, alternative solutions must be sought to speed up the game.

Flopping
The flopping issue has generated significant discussion recently, but it is something the league must address. ‘Flopping’ is the act of feigning physical contact when little or no contact is made. In essence it is cheating. Whilst this behaviour is accepted in some sports, it shouldn’t stand in the NBA. The best floppers in the game today are arguably Manu Ginobili (Argentina) and Anderson Varejao (Brazil). Not surprising, when you consider that South Americans do have a reputation for ‘play acting’ on the soccer field. But I am not saying that only non-Americans flop, many players do it and it seems to be becoming more prevalent.

A policy of ‘naming and shaming’ the offender would go a long way towards stamping out the behaviour. Its one thing to be accused of flopping from time to time, but to be publicly outed and fined would make many second guess the action. I propose that a panel of officials review each game, and if there is a clear case of flopping (unanimous agreement), the player would receive a small fine and the details made public. If a player is caught 3 times they would receive an immediate suspension – 2 games perhaps. Although it is extremely difficult for a ref to make this judgement during a game (it is called in soccer), they would be given the power to penalise a player who 'flops', by calling a technical foul. The after-match panel would review the game and fine that player if they determine the call to be correct. If the player was deemed not to have flopped, a public retraction would be made.

This seems like a radical step to take, but such action is necessary in order to eliminate this unsportsmanlike behaviour from the game.

Whining
Watching grown men continually harass a referee by whining and complaining is not an attractive part of the game. In fact, it’s annoying. I know it’s an emotional game and tempers flare, but there is no excuse for this childish behaviour. There was an attempt 2 years ago to tighten up the rules, but as far as I can see it hasn’t worked, with both players and coaches returning to bad habits.

I am not aware of any other sport that allows this level of complaining at a referee to occur, so why is it tolerated in basketball? The rules should allow for a player/coach to express an immediate emotional reaction to a call/play, but it's the continued badgering of a referee well after the play has concluded, that must have a 'zero tolerance’ policy.

I think refs earn every penny they get, and maybe even deserve a pay rise. How would you like to be the object of continual abuse whilst trying to perform your day job?

Quarter-time coach interviews
Please, do us all a favor and can this idea! It is obvious to everyone that the coach doesn’t want to be there. They typically provide minimal answers to the questions posed, and it adds no new insight to the game that hasn’t already been covered by the commentators. Instead, show the quarter time huddle and the coach’s address to the team.

Yes, coaches do get paid a lot of money so we shouldn’t feel bad about wanting our pound of flesh, but why persist with it when there is no entertainment value?

Hack-a-Shaq
While on some level I don’t mind seeing woefully bad free throw shooters exposed, the hack-a-shaq strategy does give the impression of bad sportsmanship at play. The hack-a-shaq strategy is the repeated intentional fouling of an individual every time his team takes possession of the ball, in order to force that player to shoot free throws.

Most recently the strategy was used against Shaq during the Spurs/Suns series in the first round of this year’s playoffs. Whilst successful, it did leave a very bad taste in the mouth at the conclusion of the already spiteful series.

Fact is the rules allow it, and in today’s NBA where coaches are under a tremendous amount of pressure to succeed, they will do whatever is necessary to get the job done. Therefore, the rules must be changed. The solution is simple. A technical foul should be awarded for any such transgression (fouling off the ball), with the team receiving free throws and possession of the ball. Problem solved.

The NBA is such a great game, but with a few changes, it could be even better.

Without big men, what's the point?

Published by www.probasketballnews.com on 09/07/2008
Link: http://www.probasketballnews.com/todd_070908.html

Quick. Name a team that has won an NBA championship in the last 15 years with a dominant point guard as its centerpiece?

Having trouble? That’s because there are none.

So why are we consistently hearing now that the NBA is a point guard’s league, when history tells us otherwise?

The theory seems to have arisen because of the stellar play of third-year point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams, who have not only had tremendous individual success, but team success as well.

But can a team led by a dominant point guard win the ultimate prize? Let’s examine recent history.

Since 1999, eight of the 10 NBA championships have involved either Shaquille O’Neal or Tim Duncan, two of the greatest post players to ever play the game. The two exceptions are the 2008 Boston Celtics and the 2004 Detroit Pistons. Both teams relied on a combination of physical defense and balanced offense to beat the odds and claim a title.

OK, let’s go back even further. During the 1990’s, the Michael Jordan-led Chicago Bulls won six NBA championships (1991-93 and 1996-98), the Houston Rockets won two (1994-95) and the Detroit Pistons one (1990).

The Bulls championship teams of the 90's did not have a dominant post player or point guard, but let’s take a look at their strategy. Phil Jackson’s Triangle offense creates regular post-up opportunities for versatile wing players, and with Jordan and Scottie Pippen filling that role, they were unbeatable.

On the other hand, the Rockets' championships were due in large part to another
Hall of Fame post player, Hakeem Olajuwon (two-time Finals MVP).

So we have to go back almost 20 years to 1990 to find a Hall of Fame point guard in Isiah Thomas who led the Pistons to an NBA championship (and gained a Finals MVP).

As for San Antonio point guard Tony Parker ... well, he is a tremendous player and top three point guard in the league. But let’s face it, he’s more of a complementary player who feeds off the brilliance of Tim Duncan. Yes, Parker won the Finals MVP in 2007, but generally speaking, he’s not consistently dominant like Paul or Williams. It's true that Parker is only 26-years old, and he may yet develop that type of consistency, particularly as Duncan’s play begins to decline. But he hasn't yet.

The 2008 Finals featured two teams with role-playing point guards. The Celtics started second-year point man Rajon Rondo, who is extremely talented but still very much a work in progress. The Los Angeles Lakers went with trusty veteran Derek Fisher in the backcourt, but in reality he’s more of a combo guard than a pure point guard. Thus, both teams reached the grand stage without being heavily reliant upon dominant point guard play.

Rather, offensively speaking, Boston relied on the inside-outside versatility of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, while the Lakers fed off Kobe Bryant’s dominance. Garnett is capable of being a dominant post scorer in stretches, but because of the limited amount of time he plays in the post he cannot be labelled an elite post player.

Steve Nash won the league MVP in both 2005 and 2006, yet was still unable to lead a talented Phoenix Suns team to the Finals. When it’s all said and done, Nash will be remembered as one of the all-time great point guards, but his inability to win a title will tarnish his legacy, as with other Hall of Fame players who come up short (Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, Patrick Ewing, etc.). With the current situation in Phoenix, one has to wonder how long Nash's championship window will remain open.

In regard to the most recent NBA draft, as expected the Bulls selected Memphis point guard Derrick Rose with the first pick. There is no doubt that the Bulls will improve with Rose running the point, but until they acquire a reliable low-post scorer they will not contend for a championship. There is a reason why talented teams like the Bulls and New Jersey Nets drastically fell away this past season, mostly due to their complete lack of low-post scoring and total reliance on jump shooters.

It’s actually quite simple if you think about it. A low-post scorer by definition sets up close to the basket, thus making it an easier shot. Jump shooters, on the other hand, attempt shots that are further away from the basket, making it more difficult and less reliable.

Call me old-fashioned, but if given the choice of drafting a Dwight Howard or Greg Oden, or Chris Paul or Deron Williams, I would choose big over small every time.

I have no doubt that Paul and Williams are headed for superstardom -- but until proven otherwise, I will hold onto the belief that together with solid defense, an NBA championship is won through great post play or legendary brilliance.

Thoughts on the Draft

Published by http://www.dailybasketball.com/ on 28/06/2008
Link: http://www.dailybasketball.com/2008/06/28/thoughts-on-the-draft.html

San Antonio Spurs
What do the Spurs have against promising young power forwards? First, they trade away Luis Scola, and then pass on Kansas forward Darrell Arthur in the draft. It’s not as if they are stacked at power forward. In fact, I believe it’s their weakest position, with Matt Bonner, Fabricio Oberto and Ian Mahinmi the only guarantees to return next season. A guy with a diverse skill-set like Arthur would have been perfect to develop alongside Tim Duncan. Let’s remember, Arthur had 20 points and 10 rebounds in the victory over Memphis that gave Kansas the NCAA title. Even with concerns over a kidney issue he was worth the risk. Instead, they give a valuable first round contract that is guaranteed to IUPUI guard George Hill. Not only was he absent from most mock drafts, he was not even listed in the 224 page NBA Draft Guide. At best, he will be Tony Parker’s back-up. A puzzling choice by the Spurs.

Indiana Pacers
Instead of being thrilled to grab the steal of the draft at No. 11 (Bayless), the Pacers immediately sent him packing to Portland in exchange for role players. Brandon Rush will be a solid pro but will back-up Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy, whilst Jack will sub for T.J. Ford. Jerryd Bayless was tipped to go fourth to the Sonics because he is a potential 20ppg scorer and Allstar. It seems as though the Pacers are content with mediocrity. Either that, or Larry Bird has no idea what he is doing.

Boston Celtics
With the 30th pick the Celtics should have grabbed crafty Memphis swingman Chris Douglas-Roberts. CDR would have immediately brought extra scoring off the bench, and may have been an eventual replacement for the aging Ray Allen. Whilst I do approve of the Celtics taking a risk and trading for Bill Walker in the second round, selecting CDR at No. 30 would have been a steal for the champs.

Portland Trail Blazers
You’ve got to hand it to the Blazers, they sure know how to manipulate the draft. To come away with Jerryd Bayless and Nicolas Batum when their roster is already stacked with young stars, is very impressive. GMs around the league could learn a great deal from watching Portland’s Kevin Pritchard operate on draft day (are you listening Larry Bird?).

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Win/Win trades that could actually work

Published by http://www.dailybasketball.com/ on 24/06/2008

Link: http://www.dailybasketball.com/2008/06/24/winwin-trades-that-could-actually-work.html

Most trades in the NBA produce a winner and a loser. But it doesn’t always have to be that way. I propose 4 blockbuster trades that could be beneficial for both teams.

I haven’t just plucked these names out of the air. These trades actually do work under current salary cap restrictions.

BULLS get: Lamar Odom
LAKERS get: Ben Gordon (assuming he signs 1 year

qualifying offer), Andres Nocioni

BULLS get: Elton Brand, Brevin Knight
CLIPPERS get: Kirk Hinrich, Drew Gooden, Tyrus Thomas

CHI: These blockbuster trades would give the Chicago Bulls a team that is capable of contending in the East next year. The benefits are obvious. Young, quick, long, athletic, together with the solid low post force of Brand. Put this all together and you have a situation that is tailor made for Derrick Rose’s hometown Chicago debut.
Projected starting 5 (PS5): Rose, Deng, Odom, Brand, Noah

LAL: This is the big one. For me, Lamar Odom just doesn’t have it. Toughness, grit, performing under pressure, he always seems to come up short. Gordon is a flat-out scorer (18.6 ppg) who could thrive in the triangle alongside Kobe. Nocioni’s three point shooting at the small forward position would provide a more balanced line-up next to Gasol and Bynum, but crucially, his toughness would be huge for the Lakers. Therefore, this trade would allow the Lakers to fill the two holes that were exposed in the 2008 NBA Finals; toughness and a reliable second scoring option.
PS5: Gordon/Fisher, Bryant, Nocioni, Gasol, Bynum

LAC: In the strong Western Conference the Los Angeles Clippers must rebuild around exciting 2008 rookie Al Thornton. This trade would be a good start. Gooden’s expiring contract will give financial flexibility going forward, and Hinrich and Thomas will add to their young and promising nucleus.
PS5: Hinrich, Eric Gordon (draft?), Thornton, Gooden/Thomas, Kaman

BLAZERS get: Manu Ginobili, Matt Bonner, Ian Mahinmi
SPURS get: 2008 1st Round Pick (no. 13), Travis Outlaw, Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster,

Channing Frye

POR: For the Portland Trail Blazers this trade would catapult them into the top tier of the Western Conference as an immediate contender. Enough said.
PS5: Blake, Roy, Ginobili, Aldridge, Oden

SAS: Firstly, I want to stress the point that this trade would not have been necessary if the Spurs hadn’t traded away the rights to Luis Scola. But as they did, they need to get younger and quickly. Therefore, the obvious choice for trade is Ginobili because his scoring can be replaced. This trade would inject much needed youth and athleticism into the line-up, as well as more scoring options. In a year or two, the Spurs should be back in contention with a more balanced attack.
PS5: Parker, Webster, Outlaw/Bowen, Oberto/Frye, Duncan

CAVS get: Vince Carter, Trenton Hassell
NETS get: 2008 1st Round Pick (no. 19), 2009 1st Round Pick, Anderson Varejao, Eric

Snow, Damon Jones

CLE: The King finally gets a legitimate running mate in Carter. His scoring is exactly what the Cavaliers need.
PS5: West, Carter, James, Wallace, Ilgauskas

NJN: Lets face it, Vince Carter did not deserve a 4 year $61.8 million extension last summer after choking in the 2007 playoffs. The New Jersey Nets are going nowhere with him as their franchise player, so they must get value for him now before his skills diminish further. This trade would greatly assist the Net’s rebuilding effort by clearing cap room (Snow and Jones’s expiring contacts) and adding young pieces in Varejao and a pair of first rounders in 2008 and 2009 (ex. Brandon Rush or Chris Douglas-Roberts?). It would also allow them to take a high risk/high reward player with their No. 10 selection, perhaps Anthony Randolph, DeAndre Jordan or Danilo Gallinari.
PS5: Harris, CDR (draft?), Jefferson, Varejao, Krstic/Boone

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Pacers must overhaul roster

* Not published

* This article was written in May 2008

Some teams take the long route by rebuilding with youth (ex. MIN/SEA), others look to add a few new pieces to reach the playoffs (ex. PORT/GS) and some are searching for that one last player to complete their championship puzzle (ex. UTAH/CLEV). And then there is the Indiana Pacers, seemingly doing neither.

The Pacers do not have a franchise calibre player to build around. They don’t have a collection of young players that would offer hope for the future. Nor do they have a group of veterans that would make any significant difference between winning and losing. The Pacers are a team made up of players that are either a) grossly overpaid in relation to their talent, or b) not talented enough to get the job done. The only exception to this is Danny Granger.

Danny Granger is a terrific young player that is gradually becoming a star in this league. However, his style of play is more suited to that of a complimentary role on a successful team. He would therefore be most effective when used as a team’s third option, á la Lamar Odom with the Lakers.

Besides Granger, the core of the team consists of Jermaine O’Neal (2 years at $44m), Mike Dunleavy (3 years at $29m), Troy Murphy (3 years at $33m), Jamaal Tinsley (3 years at $21m) and Marquis Daniels (2 years at $14m). Mike Dunleavy is probably the most useful player of the bunch, but his salary indicates that he should be a viable second or third option. However, his talent would be best utilized as a fourth or fifth option. Both O’Neal’s and Murphy’s salary are atrocious as they don’t produce nearly enough, O’Neil because of injury and Murphy due to a lack of talent.

So what should they do? Apart from Granger, I believe they should explore trade opportunities for the entire team. History has told us that no one is untradable in the NBA (ex. Larry Hughes, Ben Wallace, Shaq), even so, unloading these players and their contracts won’t be easy. The reality is, these players will not fetch young talent in return, but may bring back expiring contracts or second round draft picks. If I were sitting in Larry Bird’s chair I would be content with this strategy as a means of rebuilding. The sooner they realise they must take one giant step back in order to move forward, the better. One thing’s certain, the status quo of consistent mediocrity is unacceptable.

Their pick in this year’s draft is crucial (No. 11). They cannot afford to select another player who fails to produce and must not risk the pick on a project type player (ex. DeAndre Jordan, Kosta Koufos or Donte Greene). Rather, they should be looking at players who can contribute immediately, or at the very least in two or three year’s time. DJ Augustin, Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush or Chris Douglas-Roberts would fit the bill and team with Danny Granger to form a solid foundation for the future.

If they are successful in unloading the majority of their bad contracts, make no mistake about it, the next two to three years will be extremely tough and require tremendous patience. But such a process is necessary if they wish to rebuild this team. Who knows, a couple of high draft picks in 2009 and 2010 could put them back on track with a collection of young, talented players who possess the right attitude to succeed, and in the process win back the Indiana faithful (ex. Portland).

One thing is sure, they cannot go on blaming the Ron Artest incident as a reason for their woes, but instead must immediately get on with the job of rebuilding this once proud franchise. Larry Bird, it’s time to earn your pay check.

Stephen A. Smith - Heart Over Head?

Published by http://www.dailybasketball.com/ on 20/06/2008
Link: http://www.dailybasketball.com/2008/06/20/stephen-a-smith-heart-over-head.html

ESPN’s resident NBA analyst Stephen A. Smith could never be accused of ‘sitting on the fence’. He is opinionated, passionate and forthright when discussing issues that relate to the NBA. But just how accurate are his predications?

During his segments on ESPN’s Sportcenter, NBA Shootaround and the halftime show, Stephen A. often berates other panelists for having an opinion different to his own. He tends to talk in a manner that suggests his opinion is fact and the only one that counts. But during these rants, I can’t help but cast my mind back to three of his predictions, that were not only cringe-worthy at the time, but downright embarrassing today.

Prediction 1
At the 2006 NBA Draft, Stephen A. heavily criticized (ridiculed almost) Portland Trailblazers GM Kevin Pritchard for making a series of draft day trades that netted them LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy. Today, these two guys are arguably the best players to emerge from the entire 2006 draft (along with Rudy Gay), and would both be in the top 10 most promising young players in the league. They form the foundation of a Blazers team (along with Greg Oden) that will, barring major injury, contend for a title in the coming years.

Prediction 2
At the 2007 NBA Draft, upon hearing that the New York Knicks traded for Zach Randolph, Stephen A. went on to proclaim that the Knicks would drastically improve and be a contender in the East. At the time I thought, “what planet is this guy living on?” Zach Randolph has never helped a team in the win column, is a poor defender and has had numerous off-the-court and on-the-court issues. Not to mention that they already had a guy on their roster who was eerily similar (Eddy Curry). Yet Stephen A. proclaimed him to be the savior of the Knicks, even though his price tag was $60 million over four years, further constricting them financially. In a long line of bad trades, this was another terrible trade for the Knicks. I don’t need to remind anyone how this situation turned out.

Prediction 3
Prior to the 2007/08 season, when asked who he thought were NBA title contenders, Stephen A. confidently predicted the Denver Nuggets. On what basis, I am still not sure. The Nuggets were beaten easily by the Spurs in the first round of the 2007 Playoffs (4-1). The only additions to their roster were Chucky Atkins and an injury plagued Kenyon Martin, hardly enough to get them by the elite teams in the West. I found it beyond belief that a person with Stephen A’s basketball background could predict that a team such as Nuggets, who are totally deficient defensively, could win the NBA championship, especially when it has never been done before. In my opinion, he grossly overestimated Carmelo Anthony’s ability to do what was necessary to lead his team to victory.

Look, I don’t expect media analysts to be 100% accurate with their predictions and in fact, I do believe that most of what Stephen A says is bang on. However, being way off the mark with the above predictions does make me question his credibility at times.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t dislike the guy, in fact I love his passion for the game of basketball. However, in this instance with the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets, I believe it demonstrates that on occasion Stephen A’s heart rules Stephen A’s head.

* See link above for comments