Published by http://www.probasketballnews.com/ on 11/11/2008Link: http://www.probasketballnews.com/todd_111108.html
The list of potential free agents in the summer of 2010 is mind-boggling. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire headline the list. But which of the big name players will actually make the move and change zip codes?
For the top 10 potential free agents of 2010, here are my early predictions on who will stay and who will go. As you’ll see, I am predicting big changes to the NBA landscape. But please note -- some imagination was required in the writing of this article.
LEBRON JAMES, Cavaliers (player option)
Stay or Go: Go
Sorry Cleveland fans, but I think your worst nightmare will come true. The Cavs' inability to surround LeBron with enough quality players will force him to look elsewhere for that elusive championship. But LeBron will not uproot merely to play for a big-market team like the New York Knicks. By 2010 he will be seeking nothing less than a genuine chance at an NBA title.
With their train-wreck of a roster, the Knicks will still be miles from that goal, but either the New Jersey Nets or Miami Heat may be the solution. New Jersey has put together an impressive collection of young talent (Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Yi Jianlian, Ryan Anderson, Sean Williams) that could be ready for a playoff push in two years. Not to mention the fact that James' good buddy, Jay-Z, is part-owner of the team, and LeBron’s "building empire" would be a perfect fit for the eventual Brooklyn relocation (2011?).
While current developments suggest that the $3.5 billion Atlantic Yards arena project is in doubt, the mere prospect of a LeBron defection to Brooklyn should ensure that it remains on course for completion.
The Miami Heat and their wads of cash may also appeal. The prospect of joining close friend Dwyane Wade and young stud Michael Beasley to form an outrageous trio in South Beach could be well worth considering.
In regards to Europe, while James may use it as leverage to get a better deal, there is no way he plies his trade in a foreign land. LBJ belongs in the NBA and he knows it. But ultimately, assuming the Brooklyn move takes place, it’s the prospect of success and mass appeal in New York that will clinch the deal with the Nets.
Prediction: New Jersey (Brooklyn) Nets
DWYANE WADE, Heat (player option)
Stay or Go: Stay
The Heat's future cap space will enable them to sign another game-changing talent, which will keep Wade in South Beach. Unless they absolutely tank it over the next two years -- which seems unlikely -- Wade will be leading the Heat back to the NBA’s elite. Whether it’s Carlos Boozer in 2009, or perhaps Amare Stoudemire or James in 2010, both the lure of South Beach and having Wade as a teammate will pave the way for a big signing. And if Beasley can live up to the hype, Miami could be scary good down the track.
Prediction: Miami Heat
AMARE STOUDEMIRE, Suns (player option)
Stay or Go: Go
The Phoenix core is aging badly (Shaquille O’Neal is 36, Grant Hill 36, Steve Nash 34, and Raja Bell 32) and chances are they will continue their downward spiral. In two years they could be in the midst of a total rebuild, and wanting no part of it, Stoudemire will move on. Miami is bound to come calling, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him head for a big-market team. Having missed out on James, the emerging Knicks will beckon, and Stoudemire will be seduced by the bright lights of NYC and a reunion with former coach Mike D’Antoni.
Prediction: New York Knicks
CHRIS BOSH, Raptors (play option)
Stay or Go: Go
Assuming Dirk Nowitzki opts out of his contract and leaves via free-agency in 2010 (see prediction below), the Mavs currently have about $40 million in salary committed for the 2010-11 season. But that’s if they don’t make any more ill-advised financial decisions between now and then, like the $31 million they gifted DeSagana Diop this past summer.
How does this relate to Chris Bosh? Well, he was born in Dallas and grew up in Texas. The Mavs could be in a position to offer Bosh a maximum contract, with the added bonus of returning home. He could assume the role of franchise player from the departing Nowitzki, and team with Josh Howard to form an explosive frontcourt.
Something tells me the Raptors will fizzle out in the next couple of years. Andrea Bargnani appears to be a flop, and apart from Jose Calderon and the injury-prone Jermaine O’Neal, there is little talent to speak of. In two years Bosh will be hitting his prime, and his patience may have run out if the Raptors aren’t legitimate contenders.
One thing’s for sure, in 2010 Mark Cuban will have his check book at the ready, and it’s quite possible Bosh will be at the top of his list.
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
DIRK NOWITZKI, Mavericks (player option)
Stay or Go: Go
Odds are high that by 2010 a mutual separation in Dallas might be best for all concerned. Minus a championship and fading fast, Cuban will be seeking a fresh start, and Nowitzki a change of teammates to help him achieve his goal of becoming an NBA champion. A team like the San Antonio Spurs may appeal to the big German, as they will have the cash and personnel to suit. Imagine Dirk playing alongside Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Seems like a move that both parties would find intriguing.
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
TRACY MCGRADY, Rockets (unrestricted)
Stay or Go: Go
Having come up short in Houston, McGrady will be looking to hitch his wagon to a championship outfit. Willing to sign for a minimal amount, teams such as Portland, Utah and the Lakers will make a pitch. However, the chance to partner with Chris Paul in the New Orleans backcourt will be too tempting to pass up.
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
JOE JOHNSON, Hawks (unrestricted)
Stay or Go: Stay
Atlanta will become a force behind the continued improvement from its stable of young studs (Josh Smith, Al Horford, Marvin Williams and Acie Law). As the heart and sole of the team, Johnson won’t walk away from that.
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
TYSON CHANDLER, Hornets (player option)
Stay or Go: Stay
Chandler would have to be crazy to leave Chris Paul and the Hornets. Realizing this, he honors the remainder of his contract.
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
MANU GINOBILI, Spurs (unrestricted)
Stay or Go: Stay
Ginobili’s loyalty and the promise of new success with Nowitzki’s arrival (earlier prediction), will cause him to re-up at a reduced rate.
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
MICHAEL REDD, Bucks (player option)
Stay or Go: Stay
There’s no telling where Redd could end up this season, let alone in two years. But I will take a flyer and say the Orlando Magic. By 2010 the Magic will be on-the-cusp and seeking another deep threat to complement Dwight Howard. Willing to accept less to finally play on a contender, Redd could be the missing piece to Orlando’s first ever NBA championship.
Prediction: Orlando Magic
