Sunday, September 4, 2011

Filling Holes In Free Agency

I am a positive thinker (not really I am just bored) so when the lockout ends sometime around mid January, the free agency period promises to be a pretty dull affair. It’s short on big names and teams with cash to spend. But like always, if you know where to look you can find what you need.

With that in mind I’ll examine the free agent market and identify two players that each team should target.

I’ve based my decisions on two criteria; 1) team needs, and 2) considering their current cap position, what they realistically can afford. I’ll say that again folks, what they REALISTICALLY can afford.

With a new CBA on the horizon things are gonna be a changin, so a fair bit of guess work was involved here. Therefore, I made the following assumptions:

1. The 2011/12 season will be operating under a similar cap figure to last year
($58m). Whilst there will be some big changes in the new CBA, the consensus is that these changes will be phased in over several years.

2. Although it will be more restrictive, the new CBA will not include a hard salary cap – the owners had already caved on this during the first round of talks. And there will be a similar mechanism in play that allows teams to retain their own players (Bird Rights and the right to match for restricted free agents).

3. The Mid-level Exception (MLE) as we know it will not exist in the new CBA. Under the MLE, once a year teams were able to sign a player to a contract averaging about $7m per year, even if the team was already over the cap. In the new CBA the MLE will either be eliminated, or replaced by a new version worth about $2-3m per year.

Note: The figure provided for each team is the amount of salary already committed for the 2011/12 season, excluding their rookie obligations.

*Free Agents (R – restricted; U – unrestricted; P – player option)

Atlanta Hawks ($65.8m)

1. Joel Przybilla (U) 2. Kwame Brown (U)

If you’re familiar with my work you’ll know my thoughts on Josh Smith; he’s the cancer on this team that needs to be removed. But assuming these dopes stand pat with the current group (likely) they’ll need some more beef upfront, and Przybilla or Brown offer defense and rebounding at the pivot, which would allow Horford to slide over to the four.

And as far as I am concerned Jamal Crawford can walk. He’s an overpaid chucker who is clueless on the defensive end.

Read more of my article at NBAMate